A New Trade Era: The India-UK FTA and What It Means for Your Investments

On May 6, 2025, India and the United Kingdom sealed a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), unlocking new opportunities for trade and investment. This landmark deal is set to boost bilateral trade by £25.5 billion ($34.13 billion) by 2040, doubling India’s exports to the UK to $100 billion by 2030. For equity investors, the India-UK FTA presents a mix of high-growth prospects and challenges across sectors.

What is the India-UK FTA?

The India-UK FTA, finalised on May 6, 2025, aims to deepen economic ties by reducing tariffs on 90% of traded goods, enhancing services market access, and fostering digital and investment cooperation. This deal has the potential to boost the UK’s GDP by £4.8 billion annually and create 1-2 million jobs in India by 2030.

Key Features of the India-UK FTA:

• Tariff Reductions: Zero or reduced tariffs on textiles, automotive, and leather goods.
• Services Access: Simplified visa norms for Indian IT professionals and a social security pact saving ₹4,000 crore.
• Economic Boost: India’s GDP could grow by 0.2-0.3% annually by 2030.

Source: UK Government (UK concludes trade deal with India), Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry (2025).

Why the India-UK FTA Matters for Investors

The FTA aligns with India’s export diversification and the UK’s post-Brexit strategy, creating opportunities for Indian companies in textiles, IT, and automotive sectors. However, import-sensitive sectors like alcoholic beverages and agriculture may face challenges. Equity investors can capitalise on export-driven growth while navigating risks such as currency volatility (GBP/INR at 97.5, RBI 2025) and global competition.

Sectors Poised to Benefit from the India-UK FTA

Now, let’s look at the sectors that are likely to benefit from this trade agreement. 

1. Textiles and Apparel: A Growth Opportunity

• Impact: The elimination of UK tariffs (up to 10%) on Indian textiles boosts competitiveness against Bangladesh and Vietnam.
• Growth Potential: Exports could rise by 20% annually, adding $1 billion by 2030.

Top Stocks to Watch: Raymond Lifestyle, Arvind Ltd, Trident Ltd

Investment Outlook: Expect 10-15% earnings growth in FY26; P/E ~15x offers value.

On sharpely, we have a dedicated custom index to track this space. You can check it and analyse the stocks here.

2. IT and Fintech: A Digital Transformation

• Impact: Relaxed visa norms and a social security pact benefit Indian IT professionals, saving ₹4,000 crore. IT exports to the UK could grow by $2 billion by 2030.
• Growth Potential: Strong demand for digital transformation and fintech solutions.

Top Stocks to Watch: TCS, Infosys, Wipro

Investment Outlook: 8-12% revenue growth in FY26; P/E ~25x reflects growth premium.

You can analyse the sector in our sector analysis tool here.

3. Automotive and Components: Tariff Cuts Driving Exports

• Impact: Automotive tariffs drop from over 100% to 10% under quotas, boosting $1.8 billion in FY24 exports.
• Growth Potential: Exports could rise by $500 million by 2030.

Top Stocks to Watch: Tata Motors Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India

Investment Outlook: 10% EBITDA growth in FY26; P/E ~12-18x offers value.

Analyse the sector here on sharpely’s sector analysis tool.

4. Leather and Footwear: Competitive Advantage

• Impact: Removal of 8-12% UK tariffs enhances competitiveness in the leather export sector.
• Growth Potential: Exports could grow by 15% annually, adding $200 million by 2030.

Top Stocks to Watch: Bata India Ltd, Relaxo Footwears Ltd

Investment Outlook: 8-10% revenue growth; P/E ~20x is reasonable.

You can analyse the footwear companies in depth here.

Sectors Facing Challenges from the India-UK FTA

1. Alcoholic Beverages: A Shifting Landscape

• Impact: Whisky tariffs drop from 150% to 40%, increasing competition for Indian distilleries.
• Challenges: Market share loss in premium segments.

Affected Stocks: United Spirits Ltd, Radico Khaitan Ltd

Investment Outlook: 2-3% margin compression in FY26; P/E ~30x suggests caution.

Analyse the companies in more detail here. 

2. Agriculture and Dairy: Competitive Pressures

• Impact: Competition from UK imports could put pressure on dairy prices.
• Challenges: Flat growth expected in FY26.

Affected Companies: Hatsun Agro Product Ltd., Amul (GCMMF)

Investment Outlook: Flat growth in FY26; P/E ~35x warrants caution.

3. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): Navigating Increased Competition

• Impact: SMEs in handicrafts and engineering face competition from UK imports.
• Challenges: Margin pressures for non-export SMEs.

Investment Outlook: High-risk, volatile earnings; avoid unless export-focused.

Macro and Investment Implications

The India-UK FTA could lift India’s GDP by 0.2-0.3% annually by 2030, creating jobs and boosting the Nifty50 index by 1-2% in FY26.

Key Risks:

• Currency Volatility: GBP/INR at 97.5 (RBI, 2025).
• Global Competition: Rivals like Vietnam may challenge textile exports.
• Implementation Risks: Visa reforms and non-tariff barriers need monitoring.
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Conclusion: How to Play the India-UK FTA

The India-UK FTA, signed on May 6, 2025, is a transformative deal for Indian equities. Focus on export-driven sectors and stocks, while staying cautious on import-sensitive sectors. Monitor currency trends and implementation for sustained gains.

FAQs on India-UK FTA 2025

1) What is the India-UK FTA?

Ans: The India-UK FTA reduces tariffs, enhances services access, and boosts trade by £25.5 billion by 2040.

2) Which Indian sectors will benefit?

Ans: Textiles, IT, automotive, leather, gems, and marine products are key beneficiaries.

3) Which sectors face challenges?

Ans: Alcoholic beverages, agriculture, and SMEs may face competition from UK imports.

4) What are the best stocks to invest in?

Ans: Consider TCS, Infosys, Tata Motors, Raymond, and Titan for export-driven growth.

5) What are the risks of the FTA?

Ans: Currency volatility, global competition, and implementation delays are key risks.