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volatility contraction pattern vcp a rule based screener built for high quality breakouts
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Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP): A Rule-Based Screener Built for High Quality Breakouts

by Avinash Bhatt Feb 03, 2026

Finding stocks that deliver strong breakout moves is not about chasing price. It is about identifying quiet accumulation before the move begins. One of the most reliable frameworks for spotting such setups is the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), popularized by Mark Minervini.


In this blog, we break down a rule-based VCP screener built on sharpely, explaining each filter, its purpose, and the market logic behind it. This is not a theoretical explanation, these are practical screening rules you can use daily.


What Is a Volatility Contraction Pattern?

A VCP is a tight consolidation after a strong uptrend, where:

  • Price holds near highs
  • Volatility contracts progressively
  • Volume dries up


This behavior signals institutional accumulation. Large investors build positions quietly before a stock makes its next expansion move. The goal of a VCP screener is to catch stocks just before volatility expands again.


Let's first look at how the conditions look on the sharpely screen.



It is looking way too complicated, right? Well, if we understand each condition step by step, it is very easy to comprehend and use! So, let's do it!


Step 1: Liquidity & Tradability Filters

Market Cap > ₹1,000 Cr

This filter removes illiquid and micro-cap stocks where price movements are often driven by speculation rather than institutional demand. VCP works best when institutions are involved, and that requires sufficient market capitalization.


Average Daily Volume (1 Month) > 2,00,000

Volume is the fuel for breakouts. This rule ensures that:

  • Entries and exits are practical
  • Breakouts are supported by real participation

Low-volume stocks can show tight patterns, but they often fail when demand does not follow through.


Step 2: Structural Uptrend Confirmation

A VCP is not a reversal pattern. It is a continuation pattern. That’s why trend filters are non-negotiable.

Price Above Key Moving Averages

  • Close > 50 EMA
  • Close > 100 EMA
  • Close > 200 EMA

This confirms that price is firmly above short-, medium-, and long-term trend levels.


Moving Average Alignment

  • 50 EMA > 100 EMA
  • 100 EMA > 200 EMA

This alignment indicates a Stage-2 uptrend, where institutions are already invested and defending the price.


Step 3: Prior Price Expansion

One-Year Return > 20%

A VCP forms after a meaningful advance, not from a flat base. This rule ensures the stock has already proven its ability to trend and attract capital.

Stocks that haven’t moved in the past year rarely deliver explosive breakouts.


Step 4: Price Holding Near Highs

Below 52-Week High (%) < 15

This means the stock is trading within 15% of its 52-week high.


Why this matters:

  • Strong stocks refuse to correct deeply
  • Institutions defend prices near highs
  • Weak stocks break down instead of consolidating

This filter eliminates structurally weak setups.


Step 5: Volatility Contraction (Core of VCP)

ATR(14) / Close < 5%

Average True Range (ATR) measures volatility. Dividing it by price normalizes it across stocks.


This rule ensures:

  • Daily price movement is shrinking
  • The stock is “coiling”, not swinging


ATR(14) < ATR(50)

This confirms recent volatility is lower than long-term volatility, a classic VCP signature.

Together, these rules capture volatility contraction, the most important ingredient of the pattern.


Step 6: Tight Price Range

One-Month Range < 10% of Price

This custom metric measures how tightly price has moved over the last ~21 trading days.


A tight range indicates:

  • Supply is exhausted
  • Sellers are no longer aggressive
  • Small demand can trigger a breakout


The tighter the range, the more powerful the eventual expansion tends to be.


Step 7: Volume Dry-Up

20-Day Average Volume < 50-Day Average Volume

This confirms that trading activity is declining during consolidation.


In VCP setups:

  • Volume contracts during the base
  • Volume expands during the breakout


Without volume contraction, a base is often just a distribution.


Putting It All Together

This screener does not look for breakouts. It looks for stocks preparing to break out.


Each rule plays a specific role:

  • Liquidity filters ensure institutional relevance
  • Trend filters confirm structural strength
  • Volatility and range filters identify contraction
  • Volume filters validate accumulation


The result is a high-quality watchlist, not a trade signal.


How to Use This Screener Effectively

Well, we have done the hard work for you. We have created and published the screen. You can find it here.


After a stock appears in this screener:

  1. Check the chart visually
  2. Identify the most recent tight base
  3. Mark the base high as the breakout level
  4. Look for a breakout with above-average volume


This approach keeps you early, selective, and disciplined.


Backtested Performance: Does the VCP Screener Hold Up in Reality?

Screening logic is only as good as its real-world performance. To evaluate whether this VCP framework actually delivers results beyond theory, we backtested the screen as a systematic strategy on sharpely. Here is the summary.



The backtest helps answer a simple but critical question: Does identifying volatility contraction near highs translate into superior risk-adjusted returns over time?


Portfolio vs Benchmark: Long-Term Outcome

An initial capital of ₹1,00,00,000, invested on February 3, 2023, was tracked using this VCP-based approach.

  • Strategy Portfolio Value: ₹2,77,13,083
  • Total Return: +177.13%
  • Benchmark Return: +45.54%


The portfolio significantly outperformed the benchmark over the same period, highlighting that stocks emerging from tight volatility contractions tend to deliver sustained trend-following returns, not just short-term spikes.


Risk-Adjusted Performance Metrics

Raw returns matter, but the quality of returns matters more. This is where the strategy stands out.

  • Sharpe Ratio: 1.68 (vs benchmark 0.79)
  • Sortino Ratio: 2.42 (vs benchmark 1.13)
  • Beta: 0.98


A Sharpe above 1.5 indicates strong risk-adjusted performance, while a higher Sortino ratio shows that returns were achieved with controlled downside volatility. The beta close to 1 suggests that outperformance was driven by stock selection, not excessive market risk.


Alpha Generation

The strategy delivered an alpha of 23.26%, meaning it generated returns well beyond what could be explained by market movement alone.

This reinforces the core thesis of the VCP framework:

Stocks under quiet accumulation tend to outperform once volatility expands.


Return Consistency

  • Expected Daily Return: 0.14%
  • Expected Monthly Return: 2.79%
  • Expected Annualized Return: ~29%

These numbers reflect steady compounding, not extreme dependency on a few outsized winners — an important characteristic for any repeatable strategy.


Drawdowns & Risk Control

  • Worst Day: -7.0%
  • Worst Month: -11.75%
  • Daily Value-at-Risk (VaR): -1.86%

While drawdowns are unavoidable in trend-following systems, the strategy maintained reasonable downside containment, especially considering the level of outperformance achieved.

This is consistent with how VCP setups behave:

Small losses during failed breakouts, followed by large asymmetric gains during successful trends.


Trade-Level Insights

  • Total Trades: 185
  • Winning Trades: 110 (59.46%)
  • Losing Trades: 75 (40.54%)
  • Average Win: 20.05%
  • Average Loss: -11.58%


The strategy does not rely on a very high win rate. Instead, it benefits from larger average winners than losers, which is exactly how momentum and breakout strategies are designed to work.


What This Backtest Tells Us (and What It Doesn’t)

What it tells us:

  • Volatility contraction near highs is a statistically meaningful edge
  • Combining trend, volatility, and volume filters improves signal quality
  • The framework produces superior risk-adjusted returns over time


What it does not tell us:

  • That every trade will work
  • That drawdowns will not occur
  • That discretion and risk management are unnecessary


Backtests validate process, not perfection.


Final Takeaway

The strength of this VCP screener lies in its balance:

  • Strong trend confirmation
  • Objective volatility contraction
  • Volume-based accumulation signals
  • Proven historical performance


Rather than chasing breakouts, this approach focuses on pre-breakout conditions, where risk is better defined and reward potential is asymmetric.


For investors who value discipline, structure, and repeatability, this screen based on the VCP framework offers a powerful starting point.

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