Mahanagar Gas Limited will receive a one-time additional allocation of 200 scm of cheaper APM gas for each new domestic PNG customer under the central government's six-month scheme starting 1 September. Nomura estimates a surplus of 92 scm per customer based on FY26 consumption, while Emkay estimates savings of Rs 110 crore, or about 11% of FY26 pre-tax profit, assuming market gas at $12 per mmbtu versus APM at $7 per mmbtu, though savings may fall if incentives are passed to customers. The company reported Q1FY27 Ebitda down 12% year-on-year to Rs 390 crore and trades at about 11.7 times one-year forward earnings.

Nomura said Mahanagar Gas Limited is likely to be the key beneficiary of the government's new incentive offering 200 scm of low-cost APM gas per incremental billed domestic connection from September 1, 2026. Nomura noted Mahanagar Gas Limited added only 9,700 households per month in April-June 2026 versus its historical 28,000-30,000, giving it a low threshold (average April-June additions raised by 10%) to beat, and it has the lowest consumption at 108 scm per annum among covered CGDs, implying the highest surplus APM allocation to offset higher-cost gas for non-domestic customers.