Indian Oil Corporation Limited is expected to face earnings pressure if crude sustains above $100 per barrel without retail fuel price hikes, as Choice Institutional Equities analyst Dhaval Popat warns that compressed marketing margins could offset benefits from stronger refining margins.

Indian Oil Corporation Limited is expected to report a profit of Rs 7,303 crore in Q2FY27 against a Rs 2,661-crore loss in Q1FY27, according to ICICI Securities, driven by improved auto-fuel marketing margins, lower crude prices and the full impact of the Rs 7/litre retail fuel price hike, with ICICI estimating its refining margin at $15 a barrel versus $15.6 in Q1FY27.

Indian Oil Corporation will have its full daily US dollar requirements met under a special window opened by the Reserve Bank of India, with dollars sold through designated banks from October 12 until further notice.